Decoding Success and Opportunity Rates

Several years ago, I had a client in camp who, well, couldn't hit the broadside of a barn with an arrow, much less the broadside of a bull elk. Day one resulted in an arrow flung high. Morning of day two resulted in the same. Mid-morning was a full draw encounter at 15 yards that yielded no arrow being launched. Evening of day two had a Muzzy tipped arrow sticking in a log underneath a young 6x6. Morning of day three resulted in another backstrap shaving shot. After the fourth shot, I hung my head in dismay. My hunter's response? “Let's go find another one.” We were in the pinnacle of elk hunting those three days and after the fourth missed shot, they turned off. No more bugling, no more shot opportunities.

My hunter couldn't believe our misfortunes. “What happened?” he asked.

First of all, he educated most of the bulls in that area. Second, by late morning of the third day, the pecking order had been established and the bulls were content with the cows they had. It was an incredible three days. The three best consecutive days of elk hunting I have ever seen. How is it then, that three glorious days afield with five legit opportunities, leads to zero hero photos? It's called ‘The Human Factor’ and that's why opportunity rate trumps success rate every time as a hunting guide or outfitter.

The Difference

Opportunity rate means a shooter animal was in range and a shot may or may not been taken.

Success rate equals kills. Opportunity rate has many variables: How far was the shot? Was the animal mature or just legal? Most outfitters will count a missed shot as an opportunity even if the shot was longer than what their comfort range is. Everyone's comfort range is different. In my opinion, any shot with a high powered rifle under 300 yards is a very reasonable opportunity. Hunting with a compound bow, that range drops to 50 yards. If these ranges sound unrealistic to you, practice! The weapons of today are more than capable of these ranges and a lot further. If you are not comfortable with these distances, practice until you are. Many folks don't have a place to shoot 300 or 400 yards. If that's the case for you, look up ballistic charts to see what the bullet drop is at longer ranges. A good rule of thumb for most calibers is: 3” high at 100 yards will allow you to not have to “holdover” an animal's back at 300. I'm not by any means wanting hunters to do something they're not comfortable with, but I am trying to turn opportunity into higher success rates. Outfitters and guides want their hunters to have more than just opportunities, we want you to have success. Pictures sell hunts - empty cartridges and broken shafts don't.

Opportunity on species hunted means the game was there for the hunting. Were they mature animals? That's anyone's guess and a question you need to ask the outfitter. I can tell you that the majority of outfitters count any legal animal in range as an opportunity. I see many signs at sports shows claiming over 100% opportunity. That means everyone in camp had at least one chance at the quarry they were hunting. Very few places can claim such statics on a fair chase hunt. There have been years in Montana where I guide, when multiple hunters had multiple opportunities and some hunters never saw a critter. When I add up all the opportunities, they equaled more than the amount of hunters we had in camp. Were we 100% opportunity? Absolutely not, but some people see it differently. Again, ask questions to clarify.

As mentioned earlier, success rates equals critters that were put in the bed of the truck. If an elk outfitter took 30 hunters last year and 19 of them killed, that's a success rate of 63%. You can't fudge those numbers. Or can you? How many of those elk killed were cows? How many were spike bulls? A lot of times we all get caught up in the pictures or mounts of trophy animals we see hanging on the wall. We see a 63% success rate and figure that's not too bad, which in reality, it isn't. So you figure, if you and your son go on this hunt, there's a pretty good chance one of you is going home with a big trophy bull like the ones in the outfitter’s photo album. The statistics prove it! Right? The only thing that 63% number represents is animals killed for that year. It gives no insight on size of animals or how many others might have missed. That's why it is important to dig further into the outfit before booking your hunt.

One of the other problems with judging an outfit based on success rate is the previous hunters. Could they shoot? Were they in good enough shape for the hunt? Were they there to hunt or just relax? Many variables are unaccounted for when it comes to success rates, don't make your sole judgement based on it. We had a tough season in Montana this year due to warm weather. Our opportunity rate was around 65%. Our kill/success rate was a shade over 50%. We had 5 guys that couldn't travel (hike). How do I work that factor into my opportunity/success rate? I don't and I won't. It's just the way the cards fell and that's the reality of it. Most years and most outfitters have to contend with the same type of people. When you see those advertisements that say 100% success rate or 100% opportunity, I'd be a little skeptical, those are hard numbers to achieve.

My Conclusion

Success and opportunity rates are only part of the puzzle when booking a hunt. Hunters and weather are such a huge variable that a lot of times we put too much emphasis on statistics, myself included. Numbers are just numbers that a lot of times only speak half truths. They can be made to say whatever you want them to say. I remember an election that occurred not too long ago, where all the “numbers” said one thing and the outcome was another. Take’em with a grain of salt.